10.31每日分享：无人驾驶汽车将改动世界

更多精彩内容欢送关注微信公众号：MtiPartnersChinaBest了解翻硕备考信息以及咨询答疑请加微信号：fwpbenDriverless cars will change everything无人驾驶汽车将改动世界

Your next car might drive itself. “The technology is essentially here,” Barack Obama told Wired magazine this month. Robin Chase, the transportation entrepreneur who co-founded Zipcar, reckons driverless cars are “three-and-a-quarter years away”. Yet we have barely begun to think about how they will revolutionise our lives, revamp our cities — and destroy tens of millions of jobs.

你的下一辆汽车或许会是自动驾驶汽车。巴拉克奥巴马(Barack Obama)本月向《连线》(Wired)杂志表示：“这项技术曾经基本成熟。”交通运输企业家、Zipcar的分离开创人罗宾蔡斯(Robin Chase)以为，无人驾驶汽车“再有三年零三个月就会来临”。但是，我们简直还没有开端思索它们将如何反动性地改动我们的生活、我们的城市，以及摧毁数千万就业岗位。

After years of trials on city streets, driverless vehicles are now nearing the live phase. Last month, a driverless bus began carrying passengers through Lyon, France. Most in the automobile industry think self-driving vehicles will be on the road by 2020 or before, says Richard Holman, head of foresight and trends at General Motors.

在城市街道上试运转多年之后，无人驾驶汽车往常已快要进入实践应用阶段。上月，法国里昂开端运用无人驾驶公交车运送乘客。通用汽车(General Motors)的预见和趋向主管理查德霍尔曼(Richard Holman)表示，大部分汽车业内人士以为无人驾驶汽车将在2020年乃至更早的某个时间上路。

Driverless cars will initially coexist with human-driven cars. But the first places where they will become dominant are dense urban areas — precisely the spots most damaged by the automobile age. This is “a chance to have a do-over for cities,” Chase told this month’s Autonomy conference in Paris. Many advanced cities are already reducing the role of cars. Driverless cars will hasten that process.

无人驾驶汽车最初会与人类驾驶的汽车共存。但无人驾驶汽车首先会在人口密集的城市地域占领主导位置——正是那些遭受汽车时期打击最为严重的地域。在本月于巴黎召开的Autonomy大会上，蔡斯表示，这是“城市从头来过的机遇”。许多兴隆城市曾经削减了汽车的角色。无人驾驶汽车将会加速这一过程。

Cities don’t want everyone to own their own driverless car. That would prolong congestion, and isn’t necessary anyway. A driverless car is the perfect cheap taxi — it can drop you at work, and then go off to collect somebody else. If you still insist on driving your own car, cities will probably charge you for the privilege: motoring will become a luxury, like owning and flying your own plane. Driverless cars could allow cities to cut vehicle numbers by about 90 per cent while transporting the same number of people. They will bring us enormous benefits:

城市不希望一切人都具有自己的无人驾驶汽车。那将会加剧拥堵，而且也没有必要。无人驾驶汽车是圆满的低价出租车，它能够把你送到公司，然后再去接其他人。假如你仍坚持开你自己的车，城市很可能会为这项特权向你收费：开车将成为一种朴素，就像具有和驾驶自己的飞机一样。无人驾驶汽车能够让城市得以将汽车数量削减90%左右，同时运输的人数不变。无人驾驶汽车将带给我们极大的益处：

Driverless cars will reduce accidents by around 90 per cent, predicts Pascal Demurger, director-general of French insurer MAIF. That’s big — the annual death toll on the world’s roads is about 1.2 million a year, or double the toll from armed conflict and homicides combined.

法国保险公司MAIF总经理帕斯卡尔德米尔热(Pascal Demurger)估量，无人驾驶汽车将让事故量降落90%左右。这十分了不起——全球每年有约120万人死于交通事故，两倍于死于武装抵触和凶杀的人数之和。

Pollution and carbon emissions will drop, because urban driverless cars will be electric.

污染和碳排放将会降落，由于城市无人驾驶汽车将是电动的。

The old, the disabled and teenagers will suddenly gain mobility.

老年人、行动不便者和青少年将一下子能够方便地出行了。

People will save fortunes by ditching their cars. The average cost of owning a car in Europe is about 6,000 a year, says Chase. If you think personal cars will survive as status symbols, remember that horses were once status symbols.

丢弃汽车将让人们省下一笔钱。蔡斯表示，在欧洲，具有一辆汽车的平均成本是每年6000欧元左右。假如你以为私家车将作为位置的意味继续存在，那么别遗忘，马也曾经是位置的意味。

Driverless cars will hardly ever need to park, and certainly not in city centres. Cities can therefore convert parking spaces — where many cars now sit for the vast majority of their lives — into bike lanes or parks.

无人驾驶汽车简直历来不需求停放，而且肯定不需求在市中心停放。因而，城市能够将停车场——往常许多汽车在大部分运用期限里都是呆在停车场里——改造为自行车道或公园。

Congestion will diminish, as driverless cars can drive in dense packs, won’t get lost and won’t have to circle around looking for parking.

交通拥堵将减少，由于无人驾驶汽车能够更密集地行驶，不会迷路，也不用转着圈寻觅停车位。

Police will no longer pull over black drivers — or indeed any drivers.

警方不会再让黑人司机靠边停车，实践上他们不会再让任何司机靠边停车。

Once driverless cars spread beyond urban centres, the tedium of commutes will go. “You can use your car for eating, working, sleeping, kissing,” Carlo Ratti, head of MIT’s Senseable City Lab, told the Autonomy conference.

一旦无人驾驶汽车推行至城市中心以外，通勤将不再乏味。麻省理工学院聪慧城市实验室(MIT Senseable City Lab)担任人卡洛拉蒂(Carlo Ratti)表示：“你能够在车上吃饭、工作、睡觉和接吻。”

On the other hand, driverless cars will bring catastrophe. The best thing about the automobile age was that it employed tens of millions of people to make, market, insure and drive vehicles. Over the next 20 years, the mostly low-skilled men who now drive trucks, taxis and buses will see their jobs decimated. Instead of taxi drivers setting Uber cars on fire, we could see taxi and Uber drivers get together to set driverless cars on fire. If you thought Donald Trump was bad, wait for the next wave of male losers from modernity.

另一方面，无人驾驶汽车将会带来灾难。汽车时期最大的益处是，它为数千万人提供了汽车制造、营销、保险和驾驶方面的就业机遇。在未来20年，往常开卡车、出租车和公交车的那些人（大部分为低技艺劳动者）将失去饭碗。我们可能会看到出租车和优步(Uber)司机们分离起来放火熄灭无人驾汽车，而不是出租车司机烧优步汽车。假如你以为唐纳德特朗普(Donald Trump)很糟糕，那么等着看下一波现代化浪潮带来的男性输家吧。

Or think of insurers, many of whom now get about half their revenues from automobile insurance. Warren Buffett, whose company Berkshire Hathaway owns the auto insurers Geico, says that anything that sharply reduces traffic accidents “would be wonderful. But we would not be holding a party at our insurance company.” Demurger muses, “We could almost become an insurer without insurance.” Governments and cities, too, will lose revenues from parking, speeding fines and petrol taxes.

或者想想保险公司吧，许多保险公司往常一半收入来自汽车保险业务。沃伦巴菲特(Warren Buffett)表示，任何大幅降低交通事故的事情“都将是极好的。但我们不会在我们的保险公司开派对来庆祝”。巴菲特的伯克希尔哈撒韦公司(Berkshire Hathaway)具有汽车保险公司Geico。德米尔热沉吟道，我们“可能简直会成为没有保险的保险公司”。政府和城市也将失去停车、超速罚款和汽油税的收入。

Carmakers are especially scared. The few cars of the future might be made by tech companies such as Apple, Baidu and Google. Imagine the impact on Germany, where the automotive sector is the largest industry.

汽车制造商特别感到惊惶。未来的少数几种汽车可能由苹果(Apple)、百度(Baidu)和谷歌(Google)等科技公司制造。想想对德国的影响吧——汽车业是德国范围最大的行业。

There may be a clash ahead between mostly European car companies and American tech companies. The carmakers want people to keep buying and driving their own cars, albeit with new technological aids. By contrast, the tech companies will lobby governments to favour driverless cars.

汽车公司（大多为欧洲公司）和美国科技公司未来可能发作抵触。汽车制造商希望人们继续置办和驾驶自己的汽车（固然是在新技术的辅助下）。相反，科技公司将会游说政府倾向无人驾驶汽车。

Dramatic change is coming, but governments have barely begun thinking about it. Obama is a rare politician even to have mentioned self-driving cars. Only 6 per cent of the biggest US cities have factored them into their long-term planning. Driverless cars could arrive by 2020, but most mayors and transport ministers are preoccupied with next week.

庞大的变更行将来临，但各国政府简直还没有开端思索这些事情。奥巴马曾提及自动驾驶汽车，这在政客当中曾经是比较稀有的了。在美国最大的城市当中，只需6%的城市将自动驾驶汽车思索到了长期规划中。到2020年，无人驾驶汽车就可能上路，但大多数市长和交通部长满脑子想的还是下周的事情。

A decade ago hardly anyone saw the smartphone coming. It has brought an epidemic of mass addiction. Let’s hope we do a better job of handling the driverless car.

十年前，简直没有人预见到智能手机的来临。往常，智能手机瘾大范围盛行。希望我们在应对无人驾驶汽车方面做得更好一些吧。

文章来源：http://www.ftchinese.com/story/001069919/ce